Scuttlebutt: What's Real?
One of the most difficult parts of the COVID pandemic (other than having the sickness) is the lack of accurate information. This is all pretty new stuff to most of us and that includes many of our health experts. While trying to keep us informed, authorities have issued what information they have, but further research has contradicted some of what we had previously been told. Add to that the intentional falsehoods that have been issued by the White House and it's minions and you have a real mess.
When people don't know what to believe, they generally tend to believe whatever they want. In the case of many Trump supporters that means believing the pandemic is an over-blown hoax and for those on the opposite spectrum, everyone on earth will eventually get sick and 3-5% of the world population is going die. As a curious, yet unimportant side note, fewer murders, drug overdoses, and traffic fatalities have led to over a thousand fewer deaths per day in 2020 than in a normal year even with the COVID deaths.
Adding to the confusion is the very considerable differences between regions. New York, New Jersey and Connecticut account for nearly a quarter of the COVID cases (604,365), and 40% of deaths, yet Montana, which is more than twice the size of those three states combined has had only 655 cases and only 20 people have died. You can see why levels of concern vary a lot.
Even within regions there are big differences. California, as a whole, still has case numbers rising yet here on the Mendocino coast we have had only two cases that I know of and we haven't had a new case in some months. That is partly due to the lack of population density as in Montana, but it also reflects that we are taking this virus very seriously. Our elected officials have taken this seriously as well and most Californians have more faith in our state leaders than they do in our national “leadership”.
That brings us to the re-opening. We all wish that things would get back to normal immediately, but as the saying goes, wishing doesn't make it so. There are really two separate issues in play with re-opening. One is the official legal mandates. State and county authorities decide how and when various entities may resume normal operations. That includes the well-publicized phased re-opening that will allow businesses to return. The other issue is how comfortable people feel in different situations. I would be perfectly comfortable having a beer out on the deck at the Chowder House in Point Arena, but there is no way I would attend a huge indoor gathering with thousands of strangers right now. I would have no problem attending a movie at Arena theater. Social distancing has never been much of a problem with movie audiences there. Generally you can have your own row if you like. But would I feel like attending a block buster movie release in a crowded multiplex? I doubt it.
Would you be comfortable going to a gathering of 10 people? How about 30? Or 100? We all have somewhat different answers to those questions. What about if those 100 people were all being respectful and wearing masks, but of that group of 10 only one person was wearing a mask? As you can see, none of this is simple.
The way I see re-opening is by what I call trusted tribes. Lately they have been called “bubbles”. It begins with the people with whom you have been sheltering in place. We have a high degree of confidence in that group. We don't wear masks or socially distance when around each other. The next larger group are people you know well and trust that they too have been as careful as you. These could be relatives, friends, or neighbors. Then comes those people for whom members of your trusted tribe or bubble can vouch for. Bubbles over-lap so that someone in your bubble may be part of a bubble that includes people you don't know. What about them? These need to be folks that you feel confident are concerned about your well-being as much as you are concerned about theirs.
And so it goes. Until there is an effective vaccine that we all can get, people will be making their own decisions about what is safe and what is not.
Oddly, even when there is an effective vaccine, there will be the issue of those who are vaccinated and those who are not, either voluntarily or otherwise. There appears to be those who say they will not be vaccinated, either because they are afraid of vaccines in general or as a political statement.
Obviously, these anti-vaccers would be putting us all at risk, not just their personal health, so we will see actions, both public and private, that may create another two-tiers of society. I can imagine people having vaccination cards to show to enter various locations, both public buildings and private businesses.
Any vaccine is likely to not be perfectly effective for everyone forever. Having potentially infected people mingle in a public building with those who have presumed, but certainly not absolute, protection from the virus seems irresponsible. And what restaurant owner would want to risk admitting potentially infected people into their restaurant? Maybe it would be take-out only for anti-vaccers.
How about concert producers? Would they want you to post your vaccine certificate number on your online ticket purchase? Might there be no point-of-sale tickets for large venues?
Another whole can of worms comes along with what businesses will be required to do in order to be allowed to open. Obviously, there has to be some requirements and in the case of businesses that were nearly failing before the pandemic, they may never return. Others may need to increase prices to account for their increased operating costs.
There are a lot of smart people thinking about these issues and we can only hope that they come up with some good ideas AND that the public is willing to go along with them.
Primary image by Tumisu from Pixabay. Q-mark added.
